well the largest she has played thanks brooke. well. her audience technology innovation all the list of elements

around russia we've got the future covered. and if you. still. want to. follow in welcome to crossfire time peter lavelle from the arab spring to the arab winter where does this great liberation project stand in the arab middle east and where's it going are the forces of reaction including the western powers again in control of the pace of political change and is it inevitable that we will have to accept the idea of islamic democracy. politics. to cross out the winds of change i'm joined by used in washington he's a research director at the such a foundation in berkeley we have shapiro he is

a freelance journalist and contributor to salon dot com and in london we crossed to naseem oxman he is a senior researcher at the palestine return center all right gentlemen crosstalk rolls in effect you can jump anytime you want and i see if i can go with go to you first i mean where is the arab spring going we're literally in the fall right now is there a winter approaching for the arab spring. i think so far. nothing settled at the moment the dust from the arab spring which started three years ago has not totally settled but having said that there are many positive signs within within egypt the. morsi has made very very strong comments about. israel and also his has maintained his his status as a president without without causing too much. controversy within the arab world we

need of course but having said that there are of course groups within is within within egypt who are trying to derail this project but they are few and far between but overall i think there is a positive sign and only in the next few decades we'll know how how well it evolves into a good. economy clear successful democracy and i see if i can stay with you when you mean by positive define positive in this context because maybe for some other people it's not positive go ahead well. the rule of law anyway has been reinstated the peep people are allowed to go and demonstrate is they won so there is there is power that's been given to be given to the public there is a separation within the judiciary and with the president so there is this semblance of democracy within. within egypt so having said that of course we cannot accept the same kind of democracy as you might find in the west because it's

very new democracy so will he have to give countries like egypt countries like libya comes out tunisia time for them to settle their democracy essential to dust and and remove all the. norm stay actors who are causing violence well causing who want this project to fail so once they can overcome and overwhelm these different organizations and you have centralized power and you have all the different organizations that can see the positives coming out of this spring i think you would have you would have some kind of a positive change within the middle east ok. so you're nodding your head you're in agreement with what we just heard you know first of all peter i just want to say thanks for having me back on the show great having i mean i am not sure how accurate any of the seasonal analogies every year are but in general i agree with the scene that there is a lot of progress to be seen across the middle east if you look over the long view

. you have countries like tunisia and egypt. moving towards more democratic forms of government a lot of a lot more opportunities for popular input in the decision making of course there is a lot of dark spots of people are focusing a lot on syria right now for good reason but overall i mean there's a lot more hope across the region over the last couple years and i definitely agree with the scenes take ok could you get your turn what do you think about all of this i mean is it on the right track as we see the dust settle or we're going to see more of a whirlwind. i do i do agree broadly with the seam there was a regional security structure in place supported by arthur terry and lou religious leaders and rulers in the middle east and people are demanding more and more representative governments and that's an irreversible trend. as we were saying there will be dark spots and this is a very this is changing in flux and we will continue to see this over the coming

years but i feel like it's not a reversible. move. people are demanding more representative governments and you're seeing much more positive developments in that sense than the negative months of course syria remains a dark spot and syria will not be settled for a long time even if assad regime falls ok but. you know it's very interesting we haven't talked about the gulf countries here mean the reactionary powers and i see what you think their role is moving forward and we're looking at syria obviously adds. absolutely and i only got enough seems to be in london go ahead sure sure i can't imagine that the gulf countries will follow the same trend in the near future as some of the. north african countries. there are

a lot more you could say repressive there isn't this development of civic society as you have in egypt egypt more or less they have a very educated population have a vast population and they have they have a growing middle class by can emerge in the gulf countries where the ruling fact family ruling elites. controls everything. and when most of the workers are expatriates who are sustaining that country i can't imagine that this will take place in the next decade but having said that they might have ways to actually change the change their country and introduce more democratic reform process within the monarchic regime they can do that in various ways there are not have the same kind of revolution and maybe something we should hope for because of the way these countries are then we should maybe hope for change democratic reform within the constraints of the monarchy is not the best but this is probably what we can expect in the next few decades. they're all different countries over different in their

own unique ways but the gulf countries i'm sad to say but hopefully we'll have some changes what do you what if we use a term like you just go ahead jump in but you know let's talk about what kind of democracies we're talking about go ahead. well first of all i just wanted to say you know in regards to your question about the gulf i think when you when you when you look at some of these these gulf countries you see some of the uglier contradictions in the real you know exposes some of the real power politics at play in the region you have you know the emir of qatar you know intervening pretty pretty strongly or at least suggesting intervention in syria and playing a real supporting role with mohamed morsi in egypt while the same time you know maintaining an authoritarian state in his own country so you see that you know these questions are not always about you know spreading freedom or democracy but there's a there's a pretty macchiavelli and power play that goes on you know throughout these sorts of issues as your question about you know what sorts of democracies we can expect

to look for i think when mohamed morsi gave the in a series of interviews recently with the new york times and then a gun again on charlie rose kind of explaining to the american audience what he how he viewed democratic egypt and more broadly among how democracy could be adopted in north africa in the middle east in general and i think he was pretty clear and pretty articulate on the subject you know that culture is very the role in religion in politics varies across the world and. you know there's not a western or one size fits all model for what democracy can look like in and at least in egypt they seem to be charting or at least beginning to chart their own way and mixing islam and democracy and trying to come up with a you know an approach to democracy that has actual cultural roots and i think that at least. you know an articulate view of mohamed morsi was quite articulate in the new york times on that subject you know what do you think about what's the role of

islam and democracy you know they can democrat they work together because western media a lot of pundits are very skeptical. they've been spectacle skeptical for a long time but i think those frameworks have collapsed with the arab spring we have seen. right left islam its religious non-religious all sorts of groups essentially what the populations want in the most essential is terms they want more voice in the government and more representation of course depending on the country depending on the level of conservatism religiosity etc those will have an influence on the government structures and have a bigger role in the public space as the people have more royce but if the rule of law prevails and you you're allowed to express your opinion and come into the political system and represent your group in

a legitimate way that will be the future that should be the future of the region of course there are many. conservative forces in the region including gulf countries working against this trend and they don't dare support for syria and does not necessarily mean that they want democracy in syria but rather confront the iranian influence there that's but that that that will be part of the story that's unavoidable. but the way turkey sees this it's the majority versus minority in syria that that is the. minority that's crushing the majority of the population who are demanding a bigger voice in government and say in their own future. ok nasim when you start you're the one that mentioned about the kind of democracy i mean is what kind of

islamic democracy can you expect and a lot of people still in the west or various was suspicious of islam and its values ok as if somehow western values are superior excuse me that but that's how it spun yeah i'm always suspicious about using islam within to talk to reform islamic. room of islam essentially is a religion is a set of values set of ethics it's really about how the individual relates to god and his position within the cosmos so to take it further prove to me in turn islamic project and say this islamic politics is really. we can turn into whatever we want it's a man made idea man made vision of how we want to imagine our society our politics to be so live as a religion islam how is interpreted by human beings and how they create political projects with the idea of their position with a cause but that's a separate issue about within that spectrum you have various trends as you have

with any other parts of the world you have muslims who see who see that democracy is a person i'm going to jump in here we're going to go to a short break gentlemen now and after that short break we'll continue our discussion of future of the arab spring state. and if. you. want. to. to. shoot.

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welcome back across time to mind you were talking about the arab middle east. politics. ok let's see if i go back to you in london i'll be quite honest with all of you i was quite appalled by mr obama's address to the united nations i mean it's a very american centric view of changes in the in the arab middle east here and it was a very much out of american interest which of course you know we can expect that from the president ok but you know again kind of monopolizing the idea of democracy and human rights etc and that's what was your reaction to the president's speech. and there was lots of nice sounding rhetoric and words used and i think you go as usual

and you have to given that this is an election year you have to make excuses in some ways because he he has to pander to the right slightly because of all the accusations it's made against him so i think he's he's thinking about the reelection he's thinking about how he's perceived in terms of his position with regard to israel and palestine so he's making statements that are a lot more right wing than you might expect from a from a liberal in any other year not election year and within that you can see the grand narrative which represented was again this this clash of values as the muslim somehow have to rediscover or dislike well it's a rediscover the values of the west like freedom of speech but islam has no problem with freedom of speech everyone knows every sane minded person will know something like freedom of speech stops when you when this becomes a live freedom and stops freedom of speech stops when it becomes when it becomes a when it becomes slander so that this is this is obvious to any sane minded person

and to present. division within the islamic world and american western values based on this cartoon which dominated the george's cartoon i think was not was not was law encouraging for me. and and this is as i said maybe can be excused but from from this low point of view a muslim point of view i think the cartoon really is should not dominate dominate the discourse between islam and the western world as the saying goes if falling tree makes more noise than a growing forest and you have probably no point one percent of the population in the muslim world who actually went on a demonstration not even violent demonstration and that seems to have multiple lies the whole discourse between the west and islam. you have statements like why isn't the why are most i'm so easily offended why are. basically except freedom of speech

but again we're talking about apples and oranges here people in the west don't understand the position of the profit within their hearts and minds of the muslims and if this is really a sacred issue it's like. saying what is what is. denying the holocaust or something or muslims denying freedom of speech if we're going to say we want to attack your sacred values like freedom of speech that would be seen as intolerance so you have to agree with you of if i go to you how do you feel about that being i mean it is the west in the arab world in the muslim world at such cross purposes right now i mean there's a hierarchy of values that are so much a contrast. well i think i mean looking at obama's speech there is i don't think anyone is surprised that the sort of widespread amnesia that goes on in the political discourse in the west about the role of the united states and

europe in propping up authoritarian regimes in the region and i think one of the reasons why the speech rings so false for a lot of people watching outside of the western world is because you know people who people who don't live in the west tend to have longer memories about these sorts of things you know i mean the obama administration would like the narrative of the united states in the middle east to begin the day that he supported the revolution in egypt and actually it doesn't work that way so i mean i think that. americans tend to have just very short memories about the government's role in middle eastern politics and that to me i think is a shame as to the question about the way mr obama drew the distinction about blasphemy and free speech and i think this is an issue that's very difficult for americans to understand but i think a part of it is as you said is because a lot of a lot of americans tend to see themselves as having a monopoly on free speech and human rights issues thinking that those you know those sorts of norms emanate from christian values or from some sort of purely

american set of morals which obviously is not true there's vast reservoir is for you know to defend freedom of speech in any tradition around the world and broad major religious or cultural tradition but this is something that you know part of the grand narrative of american exceptionalism which dominates the way that americans understand themselves in the world i don't think you're ever going to get the majority of americans to admit that the same values that americans cherish can be found in even originated perhaps outside of america and a lot of cases so people like to jump on these these these incidents like the protests surrounding the video which of course is in the scene mentioned was a small protest thousands in the numbers in the thousands you know this is doesn't it all indicate the widespread view of muslims all. are arabs and you know living living in the middle east or in the islamic world in general but americans like to cling onto that sort of reaction or to reinforce a perception that you know respect for freedom of speech or respect for human

rights is something intrinsic to the american experience to the western experience and that we are in a role of teaching or sharing with the rest of the world and. where i mean anything of. no no can i just for once you would have strikes me it strikes me as odd when obama and many other american presidents would always say american values are universal values they always precede the universal values american values are universal why why try and claim those values as american values. freedom of speech is not your american value it is in a sense a universal value which manifests in different ways in different societies so. democracy. democracy these are universal values we do have to say these american liberal values which we which we take over which will take to run the world impose through the barrel of the gun but the universal values at the same time if they are universal they manifest differently universally. go back to you want to go to

washington you know if these values are so universal and they are equated with american values then why is the united states so low in the arab world. i. i i don't think this this these demonstrations should be reduced to a discussion of human rights and who's values there whether they're universal western etc we have to see and understand and appreciate the political context these protests took place this is not the sort of first incident. sort of americans looking like they're insulting or attacking islam and there are you know starting with abu ghraib and all those things in iraq in pakistan koran burnings etc so it accumulates these things of course there is a provocation on the ground there's not other but that but a wide spread discontent with the american policies not necessarily

of today but the legacy of american policies just an example withdrawal from iraq for american foreign policy establishment is is quite sufficient to feel that they are now somehow redeemed but the region does not necessarily don't feel that way if i could give an example i mean you know i don't know how often mr obama does but he signs these documents to use drones to kill people almost every single drone every use kills muslims i mean the muslim world knows that well that's obama's strategy with national security has been to make sure that he looked strong on national security and when i don't you know i you know i point out where he that plan is to perception is america's war on islam. that said they're certainly not many of them really if that's the perception of some people of course and that

what it is and i want to say it the broad broad segments of the population i agree with that argument does resonate with a large segment of people and they do go out to demonstrate not necessarily on this . specific more be that america this american made in the past ten years of class. first go ahead for many muslims around the world they see this is one in the same thing the cartoon the drones the ok sure and. the more that it would be so that they would cause it does cause a lot of the muslim that. i don't know if i think for you and i around the world to have a much much more nuanced view what i'm saying i'm trying to limit explain myself what i'm saying is for you and i we can take a very nuanced understanding many muslims do take a very nuanced understanding but the politics as defined by actions are now do is

taking place on the streets in the arab world and in america so the point i'm making is that for a lot of muslims who are angry they see this cartoon as again part of the same narrative same campaign as the drones in pakistan as the forces in iraq as what's happened over the last two decades in. iraq so this is one in the same things or that is why when when obama goes up on stage and tries to exert american values as though there universal values for many muslims they would say this is a hypocrisy there's a contradiction between what america aspires to what america wants to impose in the world and what it well what we know what it claims to be so there's a big gap between the reality and the aspirations of america that's how most muslims will see this is going to. be to jump in berkeley go ahead. i mean i think also though it's important not to ignore sort of the local dynamics in place and on all these protests or when we talk about reactions the middle east

have to are just pure reactions or are our responses to what's going on in america i mean there is there is a deep political confiscation going on right now especially in egypt between more right wing elements in salih the parties and the muslim brotherhood and a lot of these demonstrations are mobilizations in front of many embassies are actually you know best placed in the context of regional dynamics and local politics and a contest station between different different groups who are trying to mobilize and and you know assert a certain view of islamic politics so i think and i think it's also been shown that the places where these demonstrations were were strong as were places where there were a preexisting networks you know islamic mobilization and this is because these types of protests are not just purely reactions to what's going on to the west in the west it's not the sort of an organized mob there are existing networks it's also part of it is also the heart of it all mystic politics yes and mystic politics requires i mean i think it is important to understand it you know understand the

difference not just as a pure reaction to what's going on in america but as part of all right gentlemen we've run out of time fascinating discussion many thanks today to my guest in washington london and in berkeley and thanks to our viewers for watching us here he she takes time to remember. anything. wealthy british science. that's not to. high ground.